Q. China's Future - What is Next?

Americans are concerned about the effects of Tiananmen square and the suppression of the students by the government. In Foreign Policy 81, Judy Polumbaum says, "It would be a mistake to attribute the sullenness in China's cities entirely to the trauma of Tiananmen. It also reflects frustration over economic and social problems that would be present in any case and that defy simple solution." She reports that the Chinese feel the promise is more with continued economic reform rather than hopes for political change and Deng, although vilified in the West, is still where the hopes of the Chinese people are for the continued reform movement.

Some Americans feel that China is now among only a few communist countries left and that China is also soon to fall. Judy Polumbaum writing for Foreign Policy 81, thinks differently. She feels that most Chinese do not see these countries as models but feel their country has been successful where the Eastern European countries have failed. She replies that unlike the Eastern European countries, China has ample supplies of foodstuffs and consumer goods. She thinks the Chinese are proud of what they have achieved and feel they are in the vanguard of progressive change. Mr. Xi, a government spokesman, argues the point for the Chinese government that, "without such measures (as at Tiananmen Square), there would be persistent chaos in China" (Frontline). "To the leadership," says the narrator, "chaos also means opposition to its monopoly on power. Their gamble is that a changing China will trade political rights for prosperity."

The Chinese people have a much better life than even just ten years ago. The older Chinese remember when famines were the rule rather than the exception. They are justly proud of what they have achieved in just a few short years. They have begun to take pride in their country and its accomplishments. They see their nation take its place in the community of nations. They saw China represented at the Olympics in Los Angeles and winning medals. They saw the cordial reception of China at the Los Angeles Olympics and were happy and proud about the response from the American people. They realize they are far behind the United States in wealth and influence, but they have come so far in so little time that they feel the future holds great promise.

The Chinese people will have the last word. Patience has always been one of their strong attributes or curses. "In vain the hard-liners try to whip up popular enthusiasm for their revivalist agenda (Mao Zedong's suppression of liberal ideals)." The people see prosperity and better times. Regardless of the government's desires, they can't put the genie back in the bottle. The government must keep the change slower, but market forces keep up the pressure of change in the wind.